The Rise And Fall Of Prog Part 1, A Study Of The Essential Album List Of The Last Decade and Beyond
I started this project with a simple goal in mind. I wanted to create a list of all the most essential prog CDs of the past decade. So I started looking at the most highly rated albums on the Progulus website year by year as rated by the listeners. First here's a bit of background: As each song plays on the radio station it has the opportunity to be rated by the listeners on a scale of 1 – 5. Progulus get about 3,000-5,000 new ratings every month from the listeners. Over time the number of ratings on a song build up and a representative sample of the overall average rating of the songs are gathered. While I think we can all agree that most listeners of Progulus Radio listeners are prog fans, there is a pretty diverse range of tastes within that group which I won’t get into here. But when you pool together all of the votes over this wide group of listeners, the average ratings begin to become significant over time and we can begin to find albums that appeal to a larger cross-section of listeners.
To create the essential album list, I selected only the albums with more than 50 total votes with an average rating >4.5. As the data started to fall out, I noticed a few interesting things. First, the total number of albums that met the criteria was less than 150 between 1999-2009, and furthermore the total number of these highly rated albums between 1991-2009 is less than 175. That is much a lower number than I expected. There were only about 25 essential albums in the decade of the 90’s. Second, and far more startling to me, is that the trend in the data suggests the rise of really good prog albums has already peaked and is now on the decline! When I looked at the total number of highly rated albums on a year-by-year basis, I found a bell curve in the data that peaked around 2004-2005, but with 2007 being a particularly good year in prog that seems to stand apart from the data. 
The number of highly rated albums does appear to have fallen off significantly in 2008 – 2009. I personally had noticed before this study that 2006 and 2008 were particularly dull years for the genre, and this data set does seem to confirm that. One other possibility to explain this data is that listeners have 'heard it all before' so they are tending to rate new albums lower than they did in the past. I don't think this is the case though, because the rating system at Progulus has only been active since the beginning of 2008 so all of the ratings are coming out of a relatively short two year span of time.
I'm not sure what this means for the future of the genre, but I think that the data should raise a few eyebrows among us dedicated prog fans. I know that I've personally seen a number of threads in various forums suggesting that prog is a dying genre and albums coming out recently are not as good as they used to be. These frustrations seemed pretty relative to the tastes of the listener at the time but now this data might also shed light on their frustrations.
The number of highly rated albums do not seem to related to the volume of new releases each year. For instance 2006 had the largest number of releases on our station (over 200), yet was a pretty poor year for good albums. I need to look more closely at the ratio of really good albums vs. everything else on the station from year to year to see if it's changing or remaining pretty much constant. I’ll continue to study the data and report back again with any other correlations I can find. In the meantime, here’s my essential list of prog albums between 1991 and 2009. Enjoy!
Best albums released in 2009 (subject to change as more late-year additions become available):
Dream Theater-Black Clouds & Silver Linings
Guilt Machine-On This Perfect Day
Gösta Berlings Saga-Detta Har Hant
Indukti-Idmen
OSI-Blood
Ozric Tentacles-The Yum Yum Tree
Redemption-Snowfall On Judgment Day
Riverside-Anno Domini High Definition
Best albums released in 2008:
7for4-Diffusion
Amaseffer-Exodus: Slaves for Life
Ayreon-01011001
Circle II Circle-Delusions of Grandeur
Evergrey-Torn
Everon-North
Karmakanic-Who's The Boss In The Factory
Opeth-Watershed
Pendragon-Pure
Riverside-Reality Dream
Seventh Wonder-Mercy Falls
Shadrane-Temporal
Best albums released in 2007:
Age of Nemesis-Terra Incognita
Allen/Lande-The Revenge
Animations-Animations
Anubis Gate-Andromeda Unchained
Circus Maximus-Isolate
Cosmosquad-Acid Test
Dead Soul Tribe-A Lullaby For The Devil
Dominici-O3 A Trilogy - Part 2
Dream Theater-Systematic Chaos
Kamelot-Ghost Opera
Myrath-Hope
Nightingale-White Darkness
Phideaux-Doomsday Afternoon
Porcupine Tree-Fear Of A Blank Planet
Poverty's No Crime-Save My Soul
Pure Reason Revolution-Live At Nearfest 2007
Redemption-The Origins Of Ruin
Riverside-Rapid Eye Movement
Rush-Snakes & Arrows
Sieges Even-Paramount
Spheric Universe Experience-Anima
Symphony X-Paradise Lost
Thought Chamber-Angular Perceptions
Threshold-Dead Reckoning
Best albums released in 2006:
Beyond Twilight-For The Love Of Art And The Making
Dream Theater-Score - 20th Anniversary World Tour
Freakeys-Freakeys
Frost*-Milliontown
Odd Logic-Legends Of Monta Part 1
Pyramaze-Legend Of The Bone Carver
Seventh Wonder-Waiting In The Wings
Silent Voices-Building Up The Apathy
Tomorrow's Eve-Mirror of Creation II - Genesis II
Tool-10,000 Days
Vanden Plas-Christ.0
Venturia-The New Kingdom
Wolverine-Still
Best albums released in 2005:
Beyond Twilight-Section X
Circus Maximus-The 1st Chapter
Ghiribizzi-Pan'ta Rhei
Indukti-S.U.S.A.R
John Petrucci-Suspended Animation
Kamelot-The Black Halo
Lalu-Oniric Metal
Magic Pie-Motions Of Desire
novAct-Tales From The Soul
Opeth-Ghost Reveries
Overhead-Metaepitome
Pagan's Mind-enigmatic : calling
Pallas-The Dreams of Men
Porcupine Tree-Deadwing
Presto Ballet-Peace Among The Ruins
Redemption-The Fullness Of Time
Riverside-Second Life Syndrome
Shadow Gallery-Room V
Sieges Even-The Art Of Navigating By The Stars
Stride-Imagine
Best albums released in 2004:
Ayreon-Actual Fantasy Revisited
Ayreon-The Human Equation
Blackfield-Blackfield
Dead Soul Tribe-The January Tree
Dream Theater-Live At Budokan
Dreamscape-End Of Silence
Evergrey-The Inner Circle
John Petrucci & Jordan Rudess-An Evening with...
Jordan Rudess-Rhythm of Time
Karmakanic-Wheel Of Life
Nightwish-Once
Pain Of Salvation-BE
Pain Of Salvation-12:5
Pyramaze-Melancholy Beast
Riverside-Out Of Myself
Sylvan-X-Rayed
Threshold-Critical Energy
Threshold-Subsurface
Trans-Siberian Orchestra-The Lost Christmas Eve
Best albums released in 2003:
Adagio-Underworld
Andromeda-II = I
Arena-Contagion
Atmosfear-Inside The Atmosphere
Dead Soul Tribe-A Murder Of Crows
Derek Sherinian-Black Utopia
Dream Theater-Train of Thought
Evergrey-Recreation Day
John Arch-A Twist of Fate
Opeth-Damnation
OSI-Office of Strategic Influence
Poverty's No Crime-The Chemical Chaos
Star One-Live On Earth
Sun Caged-Sun Caged
Tomorrow's Eve-Mirror Of Creation
Best albums released in 2002:
Dream Theater-Six Degrees Of Inner Turbulence
Lacuna Coil-Comalies
Nightwish-Century Child
Pagan's Mind-Celestial Entrance
Pain of Salvation-Remedy Lane
Porcupine Tree-In Absentia
Spock's Beard-Snow
Star One-Space Metal
Superior-Ultima Ratio
Symphony X-The Odyssey
Threshold-Critical Mass
Vanden Plas-Beyond Daylight
Best albums released in 2001:
Adagio-Sanctus Ignis
Ambeon-Fate Of A Dreamer
Beyond Twilight-The Devil's Hall of Fame
Dream Theater-Live Scenes From New York
Jordan Rudess-Feeding The Wheel
Savatage-Poets And Madmen
Stride-Music Machine
Symphony X-Live On The Edge Of Forever
Threshold-Hypothetical
Best albums released in 2000:
Ayreon-Universal Migrator - The Dream Sequencer
Ayreon-Universal Migrator Part II: Flight Of The Migrator
Fates Warning-Disconnected
Koyaanisqatsy-From The Yearning To Burst - The Perpetual Circle
Maximum Indifference-The Transmutations of Supposed Angels or Beings that were once Girls
Pain Of Salvation-The Perfect Element I
Planet X-Universe
Porcupine Tree-Lightbulb Sun
Spock's Beard-V
Symphony X-V: The New Mythology Suite 2000
Best albums released in 1999:
A.C.T-Today's Report
Balance Of Power-Ten More Tales Of Grand Illusion
Dali's Dilemma-Manifesto For Futurism
Dream Theater-Scenes From a Memory
Liquid Tension Experiment-Liquid Tension Experiment 2
Opeth-Still Life
Porcupine Tree-Stupid Dream
Best albums released in 1998:
Ayreon-Into The Electric Castle
Liquid Tension Experiment-Liquid Tension Experiment 1
Pain Of Salvation-One Hour By The Concrete Lake
Symphony X-Twilight In Olympus
Best albums released in 1997:
Dream Theater-Falling Into Infinity
Fates Warning-A Pleasant Shade Of Gray
IQ-Subterranea
Pain Of Salvation-Entropia
Spock's Beard-Beware Of Darkness
Spock's Beard-The Kindness Of Strangers
Symphony X-The Divine Wings Of Tragedy
Best albums released in 1996:
Lemur Voice-Insights
Best albums released in 1995:
Ayreon-The Final Experiment
Dream Theater-A Change of Seasons
Savatage-Dead Winter Dead
Symphony X-The Damnation Game
Best albums released in 1994:
Dream Theater-Awake
Best albums released in 1993:
None
Best albums released in 1992:
Dream Theater-Images And Words
Best albums released in 1991:
None
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7 comments:
Great post! Very useful for me.
Really interesting stuff. I think this related somewhat to your old Progulus forum post on bands that innovate and bands that imitate. Even though they may be great at whatever imitation they do, eventually the listener gets tired of it. Perhaps prog labels and releases have outpaced growth in the fan base. I wonder how many albums InsideOut released in 2007 vs. 2008.
There also seems to me (and I'll admit my bias as a guy in a band trying to make a name) that the sheer number of releases by well known bands crowds other bands out. Arjen Lucassen appears 11 times in the list! Even in prog circles people like the familiar, though much less so than mainstream music fans.But good for him for being prolific. And it's not like I think he's releasing crap. IMO his releases are solid. I don't think the same of Dream Theater who have been nearly as prolific.
On the other hand, I can counter my own argument. I'm shocked Devin Townsend doesn't appear anywhere. Maybe he's more of an acquired taste that other bands.
Excellent post. Very nice to have your list since it actually have some bands I have not paid attention to.
One thing to keep in mind is that the people who have rated the songs are a very select group. If we, for example, had a bunch of the ProgArchives guys in the listener base I bet the list would be a bit different. Nevertheless, its a good list and I believe that it does show a trend...IF 2010 goes downwards as well.
About Devin Townsend...I think many are turned off by his use of cookies and over-sampling in his songs. In some ways he is more extreme than Opeth. But, I like him that way :)
The statistic should correlate to the number of released albums and new bands in my opinion. The more bands/music we experience, the more diversity appears, and I don't mean that in expanding the genre. It's all just more crowded, and becomes more equal. it's harder to stand out for every single artist, and the listener tends to find it all more mediocre.
The listener becomes spoiled.
Well, we all know that 2009 has been the best year for prog probably in the last 20 years, right? :P
Interesting list and great observations. I think the results might be a bit skewed just due to the nature of the new rating system (Cynic's FOCUS is missing?!) but overall all the albums on the list are well worthy of being called essential.
I have noticed that '09 and '07 were the better years of this decade, but I don't think we're experiencing a downward trend. A lot of the bands that released top albums in this century have been around for a while - DT, Ayreon, Symphony X, Opeth, and so on. But there are a lot of great new prog bands forming that are just starting to make their mark- Frost*, Seventh Wonder, Redemption, Myrath, Animals as Leaders, and even old bands like Cynic and It Bites that are reforming and putting out fantastic albums. We're not in any danger of a prog-Dark Ages anytime soon, in fact I think with the rising popularity of a lot of prog metal bands we may be right on the cusp of a new era.
And of course, I'll lead the charge. :D
...Then there is raising popularity of new/post prog bands like Muse, Mew, Oceansize, etc which may (hopefully) influence a broader acceptance of "real" prog.
I've thought it's interesting that the popularity found by bands like Muse, The Mars Volta, and Coheed and Cambria has not filtered to the rest of the prog world. It seems they would even distance themselves from the rest of it. Sometimes I think the same of Porcupine Tree.
I haven't heard much 'prog metal' that sounds fresh to me in years. I think bands like Stolen Babies and Estradasphere are pushing boundaries but they might be too weird to ever catch on like Muse.
I don't think prog will ever get more popular than it is now. In fact, IMHO, no music will ever be huge again. The industry has changed so much. Bands will carve out small but devoted niches that allow them to make their music. A few bands will bubble up a little higher than the rest, but no one in any genre is going to be selling 15 million albums a year.
A related tangent, to illustrate the decline(?) or fracturing of music as paid entertainment in general: In 1993 Pearl Jam debut at #1 in the US with Vs. selling 950,000 copies its 1st week. In 1996 they hit #1 with Vitalogy, selling 877,000 in the first week. In 2009, they hit #1 again with Backspacer, selling 189,000 copies in its first week. That's about an 80% decline in what it takes to hit #1 in the US now.
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